{"id":16341,"date":"2019-05-29T05:16:29","date_gmt":"2019-05-29T12:16:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.heuermontage.com\/?p=16341"},"modified":"2019-05-29T05:16:37","modified_gmt":"2019-05-29T12:16:37","slug":"the-crystal-balls-defect-they-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.heuermontage.com\/?p=16341","title":{"rendered":"The Crystal Ball’s Defect, they say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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First there was Australia. Polls predicted the Australian Labor Party would win over the conservative-led coalition in the two-party preferred vote. That turned out be wrong. Big outcry over the unreliability of polling. However, if you look closely at the numbers, the conservatives trailed by 2 points in the polls, won by 2 points in the election, which makes for a 4 point error. The average error in past Australian elections was 5 points – so nothing out of line here. The combination of urban\/rural divide and the cost of fighting climate change was a determining factor here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Then there was the European Parliament election this weekend. The results can be pretty easily summarized: things differ according to country: in Germany, for example, the Social Democrats drowned (as did to a lesser extent the other centrist party, CDU). In the Netherlands and Spain, against expectations, the equivalent parties (Workers Party and PSOE) soared. Rightwing nationalists were punished in NL, they scored in the Eastern parts of Germany. The Greek are in for new elections after Syriza got drubbed. Conservatives are waiting eagerly in the wings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Austrian conservative government was dissolved after a vote of no confidence for the right-wing enamored chancellor, the first such vote that succeeded ever. The Greens, focussed on climate change, were victorious across the board, but so were the nationalists in Italy around Salvini, and in France around Le Pen. The victory of the former had not been predicted, the gain of the latter was smaller than the polls had assumed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Overall it is safe to say, that the centrists, across the board, lost, and lost more than was expected by polling. The Left won, the far Right as well, although the latter again with weaker showings than predicted. With regard to the mess in Great Britain polls in the UK European parliamentary elections significantly underestimated support for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, two pro-Remain parties. They slightly overestimated support for the Brexit Party, Labour and Conservatives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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One could rush to take all this and try to extrapolate for our own upcoming elections. Is there a bias <\/a>towards assuming centrists are more electable when in reality more progressive forces win? Is there a lessons from the strong surge of nationalism in old, established democracies that foreshadows our own future? Is there a reason to look towards Belgium’s Parliament when we have the election results of our own recent midterms showing regional strength of Trump and his minions? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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You tell me. Or ask the right crystal ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a fun escape into the world of the unexplainable<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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