In January 2020 I wrote about my foreboding regarding a recently emerged virus no-one had ever heard of. Maybe my sense of unease had to do with the fact that the Chinese government put millions of people on strict lockdown – it HAD to be serious to justify such intense reaction, hadn’t it? Last weekend I had similar disquiet about what is unfolding in Kazakhstan; let’s hope I am wrong this time and there will be no comparable consequences. Doesn’t hurt, though, to try and understand the situation.

Kazakhstan is a huge country (the size of Europe, basically) bordering on both Russia (as former part of the Soviet Union) and China. Both, Russia and China have major interests in maintaining and/or expanding their grips on the country, for political and economic reasons. So does the West, for that matter (bitcoin bros who do a lot of mining there, included.) (I am summarizing today what I learned from several sources here, here and here, from the progressive to the conservative spectrum. The most easily read overview was found here.)

The country, after achieving independence from Russia, was governed for the longest time by an autocratic ruler, former President Nursultan Nazarbayev. In a surprise move to avoid democratic elections, he appointed a successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in 2019, who seems to be now in a power struggle with the old guard, trying to wrest influence from their hands. The country had opened up its vast resources (it contains 60% of all the mineral sources of the former Soviet Union) to Western investment right after 1990. The incoming riches were not spread evenly, though, with kleptocracy being a major problem. The population suffered from increasing debt and poverty after the 2008 financial crash. Repercussions of the MG17 flight disaster followed, since Western sanctions against Russia hit Kazakhstan equally hard as member of a customs union with Russia.

Then came Covid and killed not only huge numbers of people, but left many more in financial ruin. When gasoline prices were increased at the beginning of the year and inflationary pressure rose, anger erupted and large protests rose in Almaty and spread to other large cities, challenging the ruling party. As I write this, over 160 people have been killed, thousands wounded and close to 10 000 arrested. Government buildings have been destroyed, the airport shortly occupied, and the security forces were given orders to “shoot to kill without warning.” Just 3 days in, Tokayev’s government called on the “Collective Security Treaty Organization,” the Russian-led equivalent of NATO, to send troops to quell the unrest. It’s the first ever CSTO intervention, and it’s based on the accusation of a foreign attack on the sovereignty of Kazakhstan.

Russia immediately sent 3000 paratroopers (including some from Belarus and Armenia) who Putin says will stay “as long as needed,” but are now expected to be withdrawn within the week. Russia has multiple, important reasons for intervention. For one, Russia’s nuclear fuel cycle depends on Uranium from Kazakhstan, with their own companies mining it there and enriching it in Novouralsk, Russia. Also, the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan was the heart of the Soviet space program and is still used as its primary space-launch facility.

More importantly, about one-quarter of the population of Kazakhstan is ethnic (orthodox-christian) Russians, deeply resented by the nationalist who are Muslim. If there was a civil war, ethnic cleansing would be a problem, including a stream of refugees across Russian borders, which Russia cannot easily absorb given its own problems.

Most importantly, though, Russia wants to quell any possibility of Western-oriented revolutions a la Ukraine, that could extend into its very own territory. Putin and the Kazak government claim that outside forces are stoking the fires, as they did in Ukraine. Western NGOs (many of them funded by Americans) are said to have encouraged protests against the incumbents, and armed “provocateurs” are claimed to incite the violence. Activists from other “color”revolution certainly have shared their tactics and strategies by their own public claims.

One question is, of course, how all of this will influence the NATO-Russia talks concerning Ukraine. Russia has before threatened to react to Western provocations and amassed troops at the Ukrainian border, demanding that Ukraine will never join NATO. Russia is also determined not to have “revolutionary fervor” spread within its own borders, clamping down on political change. These talks will surely be affected by this recent example of flexing a military muscle at the drop of a call. Russia’s military response has already been declared a win for Putin by media across the globe.

A more Moscow-friendly Regime in Kazakhstan might be a danger for other Central Asian strongmen and certainly be fought by China, because Kazakhstan is the route for some 10% of China’s annual natural gas consumption and some 29% of its imports. China is also worried about spillover effects” which could encourage citizens in Kazakhstan’s neighbors, or even Chinese citizens, to rise up against their government. If Kazakhstan moves closer to Russia as a result of the current situation this would pose a threat to China’s interests.

Other markets could be influenced as well, with inflationary pressures that drove these protests alighting in many more countries. In short, it’s a volatile situation that could have major repercussions in geopolitics. By all reports, an invasion of Ukraine, if intended, will have to happen sooner rather than later, with weather conditions permitting heavy artillery to proceed while grounds are still frozen and a (U.S.)world, distracted by the pandemic and weakened by polarization, that has fewer resources to respond.

The Kazak people have a history of both suffering and resilience. Stalin-imposed starvation cost 1.3 million lives; suppression of strikes and protests by unions against land reforms and rigged elections incited many more. The protests now are likely directed against the concentration of power and riches in the hands of a few, are asking for political reform and more independence as well as economic reprieve. They might, in the best of all worlds, lead to concessions. More likely, they will increase subsequent repression.

I tried to find female Kazak artists (I had seen an exhibition by a feminist collective some years ago in Berlin), but many websites are cut off (apparently the internet there has been affected by the protests.) Images today are therefore by photographer Nadav Kander, one of my favorites. He went to Kazakhstan in 2011 to photograph the landscape, ravaged by nuclear bomb- and long-range missile testing near the cities of Priozersk and Kurtchatov. The testing program included covert studies of the public’s exposure to radiation. The series took its name from T.S. Eliot’s The Wasteland. Good time to revisit this work.

” I will show you fear in a handful of Dust.” 

And here is some traditional Dombra music.